Effects of Kyoto Protocol on Country-level GDP per capita

Sommer Kunstmann, Zach Raff, Social Science, University of Wisconsin Stout, 712 Broadway St N, Menomonie, WI 54751, US

The Kyoto Protocol is an international framework designed to hold countries and parties accountable in their reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in the hopes to combat climate change. This study explores the relationship between ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and macroeconomic outcomes. Specifically, this study estimates the effects of the Kyoto Protocol on country-level GDP per capita. To perform my analysis, I first collected GDP per capita data for the years 1994 - 2019 from the World Bank. This time period represents 3 - 4 years before all countries involved signed the Protocol until the present. To examine the largest emitters, I focused my analysis on the top 16 emission producing countries from around the world. For my analysis, I use a difference-in-differences research design, which considers those countries that ratified the Kyoto Protocol as the treated group, and I hypothesize that ratification of the Kyoto Protocol negatively affects a country’s GDP per capita. Ordinary Least Squares regression results show that the average effect of Kyoto ratification on a country’s GDDP per capita -0.46285 %. This negative relationship suggests that the two variables have an inverse relationship, meaning that the Kyoto Protocol decreases GDP per capita, on average. My results are important from a policy perspective. Understanding whether climate change protocols negatively affect the economy is imperative in pushing for their acceptance. Further, these results can be used when designing newer agreements, such as the Paris Climate Agreement, that may negatively impact economic outcomes.

Keywords: Kyoto Protocol, GDP per capita, emissions, correlation


Additional Abstract Information

Presenter: Sommer Kunstmann

Institution: University of Wisconsin - Stout

Type: Poster

Subject: Political Science

Status: Approved

Time and Location

Session: Poster 10
Date/Time: Wed 1:30pm-2:30pm
Session Number: 6533